Ramadan Roulette 2019 / 1440

When will Ramadan 2019 (1440) begin in the UK?

We’ve received a lot of messages about this already, particularly from mosques and Islamic Centres who are keen to let their congregation know, and print their calendars.

Sadly and as is often the case, we will see two different start dates for Ramadan.

They are as follows:

Those who follow Saudi Arabia: will commence fasting on Monday 6 May.
Those who follow local sightings: will commence fasting on Tuesday 7 May.

Why is this the case? Why do we have a split Ramadan start date?

To know more… read on.

Ramadan crescent, 1439 / 2018

A different reason for division than last Eid

For last Eid (Eid al Adha 2018/1439), we also experienced a split date of celebration for Eid. This difference of opinion was caused by the fact that:

• Saudi Arabia declared Eid based on moonsighting reports on August 11
•  Locally (or indeed anywhere other than Saudi), the moon was not sighted until a day later, on August 12.

There was further controversy last year because the moonsighting report declared by Saudi Arabia was not in fact scientifically possible. On that day (August 11 2018) there happened to be a solar eclipse, and yet Saudi declared to have seen the moon within 6 hours of this eclipse. This is scientifically impossible.

To learn more about  what happened last Eid al Adha, please watch our explainer video, which covers the topic comprehensively. It will also be helpful to watch this video before reading this blog piece, as it builds upon the knowledge imparted in that video.

This time, the reason for a divided Ramadan start date is slightly different, and a bit more complicated – but read on to grasp the topic!

Local VS Distant Sightings (?)

On a basic level, it is true to say that we will have different start dates for Ramadan in the UK because:

• One group of people advocate following Saudi Arabian moon declarations
• Another group of people advocate following local moonsightings

This is not in and of itself unusual. Indeed it is possible to have occasions where the UK can see the new crescent and Saudi cannot, and vice versa – leading to different start date to a given month.

However, on this occasion, there is another layer of controversy. This is centred around Saudi Arabia’s official calendar system, called the Umm al Qura calendar.

To understand this better, therefore, we need to understand how the Umm al Qura calendar works.

What is the Umm al Qura Calendar?

The Umm al Qura (UQ) Calendar is the name given to Saudi Arabia’s official calendar, which is used for their administrative and civil purposes.

This calendar is a pre-calculated calendar, and is printed many years in advance. Online, the calendar is available from the official UQ website for the next ten years. A pre-calculated calendar, of course, is helpful for a country’s administrative purposes as the dates are all pre-set.

However, the UQ Calendar is only used in practice in Saudi Arabia for 8 months of the year. For the remaining 4 months, Saudi Arabia switches from the Umm al Qura calendar, and commences its months based on local moonsighting reports. These four months are:

• Ramadan 
• Shawwal (1st Shawwal = Eid al Fitr) 
• Dhul Hijjah 
• Muharram

According to the UQ Calendar website, the reason that moonsighting reports are obtained for these months are because they are considered ‘religious’ months, and religious months must begin, according to Islam, with a sighting report.

To summarise: Saudi Arabia use a pre-calculated calendar for 8 months of the year. For the remaining 4 months, moonsighting reports are obtained to determine the beginning of these months.

Some problems with a ‘mixed’ calendar

Saudi Arabia’s system of combining pre-calculated months (8 months) with months that begin with sighting reports (4 months) does cause some problems, especially for us in the UK.

To understand why this system causes us problems, we need to know the answer to the three following questions:

1. How is the Umm al Qura calendar calculated?
2. What problems does this calculation have for the month of Shaban?
3. What problems does this calculation have for the month of Ramadan?

We will now answer them in turn:

1. How is the Umm al Qura calendar calculated?

The UQ calendar is calculated according to the following formula. We are going to reproduce the formula here below, but you don’t need to understand it fully – we will explain its implications later in this article.

For the Umm al Qura calendar, if on the 29th of the calendar month these two conditions are met:

• Conjunction* occurs before sunset
• Moonset occurs after sunset 

Then the month will have 29 days. If these two conditions are not met, then the month will have 30 days.

*Conjunction = another term for New Moon invisible phase.

(Source: Umm al Qura Calendar official website)

The crucial point that we need to understand here is that the calculation used by the UQ calendar to determine the beginning of the month does not match the visibility of the moon in Saudi Arabia. Indeed, this is confirmed by the Umm al Qura official website itself, which clearly states:

“The Um Al-Qura calendar is both the formal and civil calendar of the Kingdom, but it may not match the actual visibility of the crescent”

In fact, the formula that the UQ calendar currently employs result in months that, in most cases (75% of cases), will begin a day earlier than the actual visibility of the new crescent moon in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia have been using this particular formula since 15 March 2002. In the past, they have used formulas for their calendar which led to months commencing before the moon was born, let alone visible; this updated formula in 2002 was viewed as an improvement to prevent such anomalies. Nevertheless, it does not match lunar visibility. 

For an explanation as to why it does not match lunar visibility, click here, and here for more details about the UQ calendar.

To summarise: The UQ Calendar is calculated, based on a formula which results in its months often commencing a day before the new crescent is visible in Saudi Arabia. In other words, the UQ calendar is not in sync with lunar visibility in Saudi Arabia.

2. What problems does this calculation have for the month of Shaban?

Saudi Arabia commenced Shaban on Saturday 6 April. This was according to the UQ Calendar calculation; again, this calculation meant the month of Shaban began a day before the moon was actually visible in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the Muslims in the UK who follow Saudi Arabia’s calendar also started Shaban, with Saudi Arabia, on Saturday 6 April.

Those who follow local moonsightings in the UK commenced the month of Shaban a day later, on Sunday 7 April.

As such, there was a difference of opinion of when to observe 15 Shaban in the UK, which many Muslims consider to be a religious day. This date is commonly known around the Muslim world variously as: Shabe Barat, Laylat ul Baraa, Ruwa and Nisf Shaban.

Muslims in the UK were split across two dates: Saturday 20 April and Sunday 21 April.

What was particularly notable for this month was that those people who follow Saudi Arabia’s calendar in the UK were divided, even amongst themselves, as to which date to observe 15 Shaban!

They were divided into two groups. Let’s call them ‘Saudi Followers 1’ and ‘Saudi Followers 2’:

• Saudi Followers 1: Follow Saudi Arabia’s calendar system all year round; and 
• Saudi Followers 2: Follow Saudi Arabia when they produce moonsighting reports (i.e. the four religious months), but take issue to the fact that Saudi Arabia does not produce official moonsighting reports for Shaban.

The group which we have labelled Saudi Followers 2 correctly point out that the month of Shaban is not considered a religious month in Saudi Arabia, and therefore moonsighting reports are not obtained. This group argue (alongside many Muslims around the world) that religious dates should be determined by obtaining sighting reports at the beginning of the month, and thus declined to follow Saudi Arabia’s calendar for the month of Shaban.

So in the UK we had the following situation for 15 Shaban:

Saudi Followers 1: observed 15 Shaban on Saturday 20 April

Local Moonsighters & Saudi Followers 2: observed 15 Shaban on Sunday 21 April

Remember, from the perspective of local moonsighters, even if Saudi Arabia conducted moonsightings all year round for their calendar, they still would not follow Saudi Arabia. This is because they argue that the visibility of the moon is different from region to region, and each region should conduct its own sightings and convene its own calendar – as Muslims have always traditionally done.

To summarise: Muslims in the UK were split as to when they should observe 15 Shaban. However, what was particularly notable was that those Muslims in the UK who follow Saudi Arabia were divided amongst themselves. Some Saudi followers were concerned that Saudi Arabia do not obtain moonsighting reports for 8 months of the year – and in this particular case, they were concerned that no moonsighting reports were obtained to start the month of Shaban.

3. What problems does this calculation have for the month of Ramadan?

Now remember, 15 Shaban is not the only special day in that month! The 29^th of Shaban is a very special day, as Muslims around the globe will go out in the evening searching for the Ramadan moon.

In Saudi Arabia, they will also go out and search for the Ramadan moon on 29 Shaban. Here, we have the peculiar situation where the month of Shaban begins based on the UQ calculated formula, but ends based on the Ramadan moonsighting report!

The implications of this for Ramadan is massive.

As we have learnt, the 29^th of Shaban according to the Umm al Qura Calendar isn't the same as the 29^th of Shaban according to lunar visibility in Saudi Arabia.

To put it another way - those who do moonsightings all year round would say “Saudi Arabia are not doing sightings on the correct day! They’re doing it a day early, because they’ve started their month a day early. In effect, they are looking for the moon on the 28^th of Shaban, and not the 29^th!”

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia will go out to look for the moon on the 29^th of Shaban,  which according to them will be Saturday 4 May. Of course, as they are going a day early, this will be far too early to sight the moon! Astronomical data available to us confirms this, and shows that the moon will be below the horizon in Saudi Arabia on the evening of 4 May (represented by the red-zone in the map, below).

Therefore, Saudi Arabia will not see the moon on Saturday 4 May, and complete 30 days for Shaban. This explains why they will begin fasting for Ramadan on Monday 6 May.

Now if, hypothetically, Saudi Arabia operated a lunar visibility based calendar all year round, when would Ramadan begin? 

Well, they would go out to search for the Ramadan crescent a day later, on Sunday 5 May (see map below), and still not see the moon with naked eye sightings!

Note: visibility of the moon is only possible, in the opinion of experienced astronomers, in the green zones of the map

According to this lunar visibility map, Saudi Arabia falls in Zone 'E' (not visible  with a conventional telescope) and partly in Zone 'D' (only visible with binoculars or conventional telescope). It would be impossible for anyone to see the moon with their naked eye in Saudi Arabia on 5 May. Certainly, it would be very difficult for anyone to sight the moon in Saudi Arabia even with a very powerful telescope. Thus, in this instance, Saudi Arabia would have completed 30 days for Shaban, and began fasting on Tuesday 7 May.

This means that the month of Ramadan this year will not match lunar visibility, and certainly not naked-eye visibility, in Saudi Arabia.

NB: Last year (1439), Saudi Arabia also conducted the Shaban sighting a day 'too early' according to lunar visibility, and completed 30 days of Shaban. However, on the 30th of Shaban, the moon was clearly visible in Saudi Arabia, meaning in that instance, the Ramadan start date did happen to match lunar visibility, even though their sighting was 'early'.

In summary: In Saudi Arabia, the month of Shaban begins on a pre-calculated date, which is often a day earlier than lunar visibility in Saudi. However, they end the month of Shaban and begin Ramadan through moonsighting. This mixed calendar system means that Saudi Arabia will often go out to sight the Ramadan moon a day 'too early' in Shaban when compared to lunar visibility. This can result in Saudi Arabia beginning Ramadan before the moon is even visible in Saudi Arabia.

What about local moonsighters in the UK?

For local moonsighters in the UK things are a bit more straightforward. They commenced Shaban according to local lunar visibility, and will also commence Ramadan based on local lunar visibility. Their local Islamic Calendar does not rely on any moonsighting reports from Saudi Arabia, as they consider Saudi too 'distant' a location, and they will only accept 'local' sighting reports.

They will go out to look for the moon on Sunday 5 May, but will not see it (see map, above). On this evening, the moon will not be visible anywhere in the UK, or in neighbouring countries in Western Europe or North Africa. Although Morocco is in Zone 'C' in the map ('Visible to the unaided eye after being found with an optical aid'), the Moroccan government have never successfully sighted a crescent in the 'C' zone. According to their astronomers, they will not be able to sight the moon.

Thus, local moonsighters will report a negative sighting, complete 30 days for Shaban and begin fasting for Ramadan on Tuesday 7 May.

To summarise: Both Saudi moon followers and local moon followers will complete 30 days for Shaban. However, as they started Shaban on different days, they will also begin Ramadan on different days.

Concluding Remarks

The New Crescent Society believes that the only way to solve multiple dates for Ramadan and Eid in the UK is to stop relying on word from abroad, and setting up our own calendar in the UK based on local lunar visibility. In order to achieve this, we need your help in setting up sighting locations in every location in the country. If you’re interested in setting one up – don’t hesitate to contact us on: info@newcrescentsociety.com

Whatever your position, it is still a great experience going out to sight the moon, especially for Ramadan and Eid. Why don’t you have a go at trying to sight the moon for Eid, which will be easily visible in the UK on 29 Ramadan, or Tuesday 4 June.

Go out with some friends and family, take some iftar, and search for the Eid moon. To learn how to do it, simply watch this one minute video - it's easy!

This is clearly a complex issue, so please feel free to ask any questions, or make comments, in the box below! What do you think is the solution for the UK? Let us know!

We hope you found this a useful read. Please do share it with friends and family.