‘I Can See Clearly Now, the Rain Has Gone’: Proof That a UK Moonsighting Based Calendar is Possible [Longer Version]

by Imad Ahmed
17 April 2021 / 4 Ramadan 1442

Summary

NB: This is a longer, more detailed version of this post - offering more background, details and analysis. 

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Alhamdulillah, we feel blessed to write this article in the month of Ramadan, hoping it can contribute seriously towards a united Islamic Calendar in the UK.

In this article, we will show you our collected moonsighting data since the beginning of 1439 AH (September 2017).

We show that: a perfectly functional Islamic Calendar based on physical naked-eye moonsighting is proven to be possible in the UK. The data demonstrates this for the last 3 years and 9 months - almost four years now!

This has never been the case before.

Alhamdulllah, this has been made possible due to your huge efforts in sighting the moon, month on month.

New Crescent Society salute you, and special thanks to moonsighting organisations around the country like ICOUK and others with whom we collectively build this data. 

May Allah bless you for your efforts, and with this effort of ours, allow us to unite the Muslims in the UK on the sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ.

Is it possible to see the moon in the UK?

It certainly is!

Even in cloudy weather

Introduction: Don’t let the past cloud your judgement

"I can see clearly now the rain is gone.

I can see all obstacles in my way.

Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind.

It's gonna be a bright

Bright, bright sunshiny day"

There is currently no united Islamic Calendar in the UK.

For the cause of this and a proposed solution in depth, please read this article.

We also give an overview in this video. If you haven’t seen it already, this video is required watching!

Some key points from above video

Why have mosques followed other countries in the UK up till now?

• In the past, it was believed that it was too cloudy to see the moon in the UK, so a UK lunar calendar was not possible.
• As a result, mosques used other methods to determine their Islamic calendar.
• The most popular method was to outsource the Islamic calendar to another country.
• But different countries see the moon on different dates, or calculate their calendar in different ways. This means mosques in the UK inevitably followed different dates for their Islamic Calendar.

Previous efforts to sight the moon in the UK: unsuccessful

• People have always tried to sight the moon, but there simply were not enough sighters in the UK in the past.
• Without any real moonsighting in the UK, they would experience continuous consecutive months of 30 days months.
• With so many 30-day months, they would actually have days where the crescent became visible on the 28^th. This was not a functional calendar.

The great British weather. When we work together, we can defeat the clouds.

 Latest efforts: successful, with Allah’s help and your efforts

• Alhamdulillah, the myth that the moon is not visible in the UK has been shattered!
• Since we have improved our efforts, we have shown that a perfectly functional calendar is possible in the UK, demonstrable now for the last 3 years and 9 months.
• To be clear: this has never been achieved before, and this puts us in a new era for the Islamic Calendar in the UK.
• Local moonsighting offers a ‘new’ solution for the UK, which is not ‘new’ to Islam: a return to traditional (sunnah) sightings in the UK, just like they do in other Muslim countries and communities elsewhere.

If you have enough sighters, you can beat the weather

Groups like this gather around the country looking for the moon

The future...

Sh Suliman Gani leading the charge in South London

Looking for the moon, on the coast of Cornwall

 "Local moonsighting offers a ‘new’ solution for the UK, which is not ‘new’ to Islam: a return to traditional (sunnah) sightings in the UK, just like they do in other Muslim countries and communities elsewhere."

Background Context to data

How does a traditional Islamic Calendar work?

We look for the moon after maghrib following the 29th of each Islamic month in that locality and then:

• If the moon is ‘visible’, that month will have 29 days, and the new month will now begin.
• If the moon is ‘not visible’, that month will have 30 days, and the new month will begin a day later.
• This was, historically, the practice of the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ and the earliest Muslim generations.

The moon may not be physically sighted on any given month due to a variety of reasons, including:

• The moon being scientifically impossible to see on that date,
• atmospheric conditions,
• weather,
• light pollution,
• haze,
• number of people actually attempting to sight the moon (i.e. if no one looks, it won’t be seen!)

If the moon is not seen for any reason, then the traditional rules would dictate that you complete 30 days. This is how the Islamic calendar has worked historically. As such, this is how our calendar data has been compiled.

This is also how it currently works in Muslim communities and countries such as Morocco, South Africa, Bangladesh, Oman, Brunei, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Mauritius, and many other places etc.

Moonsighting has been happening in South Africa since the 17th C. This is a picture from 1935.

Sunnah of local moonsighting continues till today in Cape Town, South Africa

Bangladesh continue the local moonsighting practice till today too. The below picture is for the month of Shaban this year, where I had the privilege of being able to visit their Natoinal Moonsighting Committee meeting. They have sighters in 64 locations, reporting into a central committee using phone or Zoom.

Below is a picture of [left to right]

• Imad Ahmed, Director of New Crescent Society (myself).
• Muhammad Altaf Husain Chowdhury, Assistant Secretary to the Minister of Religious Affairs (seated),
• Anisur Rahman Sarkar, Assistant Director of Islamic Foundation (standing),
• Muhammad Mushfiqul Rahman, Director General of Islamic Foundation (seated).

Having a cup of tea waiting for the moonsighting reports

What do you mean by a ‘functional’ Islamic calendar?

• A functional calendar has 29 days or 30 days in a month
• It cannot have a month of 28 days, nor 31 days.
  
  
• About half the year should have 29 days, and the other half should have 30 days.
• We would not consider, for example, 12 months of 30 days, a functional calendar.

As you can see from the data below, we would have had a functional calendar since the beginning of 1439 in the UK.

This has never been the case before. Even in the previous year of 1438, there were many months of 30 days, leading to a 28 day month in Dhul Hijjah that year.

How many 29 day months / 30 day months do you expect in a functional calendar?

About half and half, meaning 6 and 6, or 7 and 5. This would also ensure you did not come up with a 28 day month.

In our data below, our practical moonsighting each year has matched the number of 29-day months and 30-day months, as scientifically predicted, year on year alhamdulillah.

For example, we predicted 5 months of 29 days in 1439, then 6 months of 29-day months in 1440.

This unfolded exactly as predicted. This is also what we see in the calendars of other countries (see diagram below). Please remember - at the time of writing we are still in 1442 so we don't have all the data yet, that will be the end of the year. 

Also note that Saudi's Umm al Qura calendar does not follow moonsighting, rather it based on a calculation which or less matches the 'invisible' phase of the moon.

NOTE: We're still in 1442, hence the incomplete data for that year. As you can see - we're perfectly functional in the UK.

What does your data show below?

• It shows the dates for an Islamic calendar, based on UK moonsighting, since 1439
• It shows when we had 29 day months and 30 day months (29 day months are when we saw the moon)
• It shows the HMNAO Predicted Lunar Visibility Code for the 29^th of that month. I have chosen Manchester as the location from which the data is calculated, as a natural midpoint of the Britain (including Scotland)
• All reported moonsightings can be found on ICOUK's website

The Data: UK Islamic Calendar is Possible

1439 AH / 2017-2018 AD

1440 AH / 2018 - 2019 AD

1441 AH / 2019 - 2020 AH

1442 AH / 2020 - 2021 AH

Further Notes on Predicted Visibility and HMNAO Visibility Codes

What do you mean by visibility code? 

For those interested in the predicted lunar visibility data from HM Nautical Almanac Office, we’ve added their predicted visibility of the moon on the 29^th of each month.

HMNAO is an organisation which produce astronomical data, and is historically part of the Royal Observatory Greenwich.

HMNAO grade new crescent visibility with a code: A, B, C, D, E and F, with ‘A’ being easily visible, and ‘F’ being ‘impossible to see, below Danjon limit’.

As moonsighters we would be most interested in codes A, B, and possibly (rarely) C:

• A Code: Easily visible to the naked eye
• B Code: Visible in perfect conditions.

In the practical experience of moonsighters worldwide, we have found ‘A’ codes and some ‘B’ codes to be visible to us.

You can see it if you really want: but you must try, try and try, you'll succeed at last

'A' code moon

'B' code moon, seen in York, by Eng. Qamar Uddin

• C Code: Visible with perfect conditions, but you have to locate it with an optical aid first.

These are rare, unusual, but not impossible. For context, the astronomers who work for the Moroccan government told us that they have never seen a C code, based on over 40 years of experience. 

However, we have on one occasion seen a ‘C’ code moon (first locating by optical aid, then visible by eye).

'C' code moon. I spoke to the sighter myself, and he explained to me the lengths / difficulty he went to see the moon and get this shot.

From a verification perspective, anyone who saw a ‘C’ code, or even some ‘B’ codes, would need to be investigated and provide a bit more evidence (such as a picture) to check they hadn’t made a mistake!

What happens if it is too cloudy, and you miss a predicted-visible (A) moon?

It is possible that on any given month, irrespective of the predicted visibility of the moon, it is not seen, due to clouds or lack of sighters. Clouds can make it difficult for us to observe the sun, let alone a thin crescent moon!

Thus, any ‘predicted’ 29 day month below may become a 30 day month. This is perfectly normal in an Islamic calendar.

What normally happens is that the next month that was going to have 30 days will have 29 days instead.

A real example:

• Based on HMNAO data, it was predicted that Jumada al Thani 1439 (2018) would have 29 days, and Rajab 1439 will have 30 days.
• However, on the 29^th of month it was not seen – partly because it was cloudy, but mainly because we only had two reported moonsighters in the country that month: Shaykh Suliman Gani and Engineer Qamar Uddin!
• Moon not seen: Jumada al Thani became 30 days
• The next month Rajab, had 29 days instead of the predicted 30

Again, this is perfectly normal in the Islamic calendar.

To give some further context, we have only missed two such moons on the 29^th due to weather over the last four years. These were the moons of: Rajab 1439, Jumada al Ula 1440.

This is perhaps a ‘better’ record than Bangladesh, where I am currently writing from, who have not seen the moon due to weather (monsoon) twice in the 12 months I have observed their moonsighting practices here. As per sunnah and traditional practice of Muslims, Bangladesh simply completes 30 days, and moves on.

[NB: I put the word 'better record' in inverted commas, because not seeing an occasional moon due to weather is not technically or traditionally viewed as a problem - it is the very nature of the calendar! They are following the sunnah ultimately, and therefore 'better' is perhaps not the best word].

You can watch a video and read my account of my experience of Bangladesh moonsighting for the month of Shaban 1442, where I visited the National Moonsighting Committee of Bangladesh. Here, they actually could not physically see a moon which was predicted 'A' code on HMNAO data, due to weather, and completed 30 days. 

Bangladesh: announcing it was cloudy, and that they did not see moon for Shaban 1442. They completed 30 days for Rajab, even though was predicted 'A' and 'visible'.

When are ‘B’ code moons visible?

We’ve got to a point where we can reasonably predict when ‘B’ codes could be seen if the weather is clear: say, if it is ‘B’ code and more than 30h old. However, some cases are still borderline and only through observing on the day can you be sure.

To illustrate: we have sometimes seen such moons in the UK (e.g. Rabi ul Thani 1439), but not other times (e.g. Jumada al Ula 1441), though there were many sighters.

[To throw the spanner into the mix, we even saw and rigorously verified a ‘C’ code moon once, which we would not have expected to have seen].

As such, we would need to gather further data over years (a longitudinal study of maybe 20 years) to really definitively predict when a B code moon is visible in the UK. The final outcome might point to other factors, not just the age of the moon, but perhaps (more importantly), its elongation, altitude and thus predicted magnitude. This is an academic point, which should in no way hinder the progress towards a united calendar in the UK!

Shaban 1441 / 2020: note 'A' code in South of England, 'B' code in North & Scotland

Seen in the 'B' code area, Blackburn, as well as several locations in the South

Can Moons with D, E or F codes be seen?

No, not with naked eyes.

Not even easily with telescopes.

You can get special CCD telescopes which take multiple images of the sky, and ‘stack’ them and process the image - then you can digitally process images of the moon. You can also use infra-red telescopes, though infra-red rays are outside of visible wavelength. It would be difficult to consider either of the above ‘seeing’ the moon.

How easy is it to predict a lunar Islamic Calendar, based on HMNAO or other data?

We can reasonably predict an Islamic calendar year by year. Indeed, New Crescent Society have produced a predicted calendar for 2021 which has proved accurate so far.

However, please note that no moonsighting based Islamic calendar is 100% predictable.

As we’ve seen, technically the weather can obscure the moon on any given 29^th of the month, and one would then complete 30 days.

This is based on the understanding of many sayings of the Prophet (s), such as the following:

"After mentioning the hilal (the new crescent), the Prophet (s) said: And so when you see it, commence your fast, and when you [again] see it , end your fast [for Eid al Fitr], and if it is cloudy, then count it as thirty days" 

If the moon is not seen due to clouds, then consider that month 30 days

However, we can easily predict when the moon is NOT visible. For example, if we know the moon is below the horizon, then it is scientifically impossible to see!

In other words, you can easily predict when you can’t see the moon on the 29th, but no one can 100& predict if you certainly will see the moon on the 29th, but we can have a very good guess.

Certainly, we can give you a very good guess for the next month, because we’ll know for sure when the 29^th of that month is. And if the moon is NOT VISIBLE on the 29^th, we could even tell you in advance that it would be a 30 day month. This is the case for the 1 Shawwal, or Eid al Fitr this year - if you look at the data above. 

Any further questions? 

Please do take a look at this data and let us know what you think!

We are open to feedback, we all make mistakes, and we are happy to be corrected.

And please, do thank the hard work of the moonsighters around the country in the comments below!

Our next steps together

"Oh, yes I can make it now the pain is gone.
All of the bad feelings have disappeared.
Here is that rainbow I've been praying for.
It's gonna be a bright 
Bright, bright, sunshiny day"

Our path next, surely, must be one of education, reconciliation and healing.

Across the country, Muslims are convinced about the proposal of a United Islamic Calendar for UK Muslims. 

But we need your help!

We need to reach more parts of the UK Muslim community, offer them training, show them our proposal, and engage everyone in this community conversation.

Maybe you have good links to key decision makers in the mosque? Maybe you work in a Muslim organisation or Muslim media? Maybe you have an idea you want to share?

Follow our page, DM us on Facebook or Insta, and let us know how you'd like to help!

• If you're a mosque, or a committee member of a mosque, and would like to talk to us and get involved, fill out this form here.
• If you're an individual, please follow us on Facebook or Instagram, where you can continue to learn more, find out about our events and trainings, and connect with us. 

Alhamdulillah, we've got this far - but we can't go it alone. 

Only when we work together will this problem be solved.