Ramadan Roulette Redux 2019: Why will Ramadan begin on different dates in the UK?

Note - this is a shorter version of an earlier longer blog/ The original  can be read here.

When will Ramadan 2019 (1440) begin in the UK?

Sadly we will see two different start dates for Ramadan. 

We pray that one day, Allah will unite us onto a single calendar.

For now, however, the dates are as follows:

Those who follow Saudi Arabia: will commence fasting on Monday 6 May.
Those who follow local sightings: will commence fasting on Tuesday 7 May.

Why is this the case? Why do we have a split Ramadan start date?

To know more… read on.

Local sighters looking for the moon in London. Can you see the thin new crescent?

Local VS Distant Sightings (?)

On a basic level it is true to say that we celebrate Eid or Ramadan within the UK on different dates because:

• One group advocate following Saudi Arabia's moon declarations
• Another group advocate following local moonsightings

This leads to different dates because Saudi Arabia is in a distant location, and it is possible that they will see the new crescent a day before us, or after us, here in the UK,

This is the most simple explanation. 

However, there are sometimes other controversies. For example, last Eid, astronomers stated that Saudi Arabia's moonsighting declaration was scientifically impossible. You can learn more about that Eid controversy, and the basics of the Islamic Calendar, by watching our explainer video.

For the start of this Ramadan, there is a different controversy. This is centred around Saudi Arabia’s official calendar system, called the Umm al Qura calendar.

To understand this better, therefore, we need to understand how the Umm al Qura calendar works.

What is the Umm al Qura Calendar?

The Umm al Qura (UQ) Calendar is the name given to Saudi Arabia’s official calendar, which is used for their administrative and civil purposes.

This calendar is a pre-calculated calendar, and is printed many years in advance. Online, the calendar is available from the official UQ website for the next ten years. A pre-calculated calendar, of course, is helpful for a country’s administrative purposes as the dates are all pre-set.

However, the UQ Calendar is only used in practice in Saudi Arabia for 8 months of the year. For the remaining 4 months, Saudi Arabia switches from the Umm al Qura calendar, and begins its months based on local moonsighting reports. These four months are:

• Ramadan 
• Shawwal (1st Shawwal = Eid al Fitr) 
• Dhul Hijjah 
• Muharram

According to the UQ Calendar website, the reason that moonsighting reports are obtained for these  four months are because they are considered ‘religious’ months, and religious months must begin, according to Islam, with a sighting report.

To summarise: Saudi Arabia use a pre-calculated calendar for 8 months of the year. For the remaining 4 months, moonsighting reports are obtained to determine the beginning of these months.

Some problems with a ‘mixed’ calendar

Saudi Arabia’s system of combining pre-calculated months (8 months) with months that begin with sighting reports (4 months) does cause some problems, especially for us in the UK.

To understand why this system causes us problems, we need to know the answer to the two following questions:

1. How is the Umm al Qura calendar calculated?
2. How does this impact Ramadan start days for us in the UK?

We will now answer them in turn:

1. How is the Umm al Qura calendar calculated?

The UQ calendar is calculated according to the following formula below (don't worry, you don’t need to understand it fully – we will explain its implications later in this article):

For the Umm al Qura calendar, if on the 29th of the calendar month these two conditions are met:

• Conjunction occurs before sunset
• Moonset occurs after sunset 

Then the month will have 29 days. If these two conditions are not met, then the month will have 30 days.

(Source: Umm al Qura Calendar official website)

The crucial point that we need to understand here is that the calculation used by the UQ Calendar does not match the visibility of the moon in Saudi Arabia. This is confirmed by the Umm al Qura official website itself, which clearly states:

“The Um Al-Qura calendar is both the formal and civil calendar of the Kingdom, but it may not match the actual visibility of the crescent”

In fact, the formula that the UQ calendar currently employs result in months that, in most cases (75% of cases), will begin a day earlier than the actual visibility of the new crescent moon in Saudi Arabia. 

For an explanation of the UQ calendar and why it does not match lunar visibility, click here or here.

To summarise: The UQ Calendar is pre-calculated, based on a formula which results in its months often commencing a day before the new crescent is visible in Saudi Arabia. In other words, the UQ calendar is not in sync with lunar visibility in Saudi Arabia.

 2. How does this impact Ramadan start days for us in the UK?

In Saudi Arabia this year, we will have the situation where Shaban (the month before Ramadan) begins with the UQ calculated formula, and begins a day earlier than lunar visibility. However, the month of Shaban will come to an end with the Ramadan moonsighting.

Here, we have the peculiar situation where the month of Shaban begins based on the UQ calculated formula, but ends based on a moonsighting report!

The implications of this for Ramadan is massive.

In Saudi Arabia, they will go out and search for the Ramadan moon on 29 Shaban.

Yet, as we have learnt, the 29^th of Shaban according to the Umm al Qura Calendar isn't the same as the 29^th of Shaban according to lunar visibility in Saudi Arabia.

To put it another way - those who do moonsightings all year round would say “Saudi Arabia are not doing sightings on the correct day! They’re doing it a day early, because they’ve started their month a day early. In effect, they are looking for the moon on the 28^th of Shaban, and not the 29^th!”

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia will go out to look for the moon on the 29^th of Shaban, which according to them will be on Saturday 4 May. Of course, as they are going a day early, this will be far too early to sight the moon! Astronomical data available to us confirms this, and shows that the moon will be below the horizon  in Saudi Arabia on the evening of 4 May (represented by the red-zone in Map 1, below), and before new moon conjunction (as it is East of the '0' line).

Therefore, Saudi Arabia will not see the moon on Saturday 4 May, and complete 30 days for Shaban. This explains why they will begin fasting for Ramadan on Monday 6 May.

Map 1

Now if, hypothetically, Saudi Arabia operated a lunar visibility based calendar all year round, when would Ramadan begin? 

It would be impossible for anyone to see the moon with their naked eye in Saudi Arabia on 5 May. Certainly, it would be very difficult for anyone to sight the moon in Saudi Arabia even with a very powerful telescope (See Map 2, below). This means that the month of Ramadan this year will not match lunar visibility, and certainly not naked-eye visibility, in Saudi Arabia.

Thus, in this hypothetical scenario, Saudi Arabia would have completed 30 days for Shaban, and began fasting on Tuesday 7 May.

Map 2
Note: visibility of the moon is only possible, in the opinion of experienced astronomers, in the 'green' zones

In summary: In Saudi Arabia, the month of Shaban begins on a pre-calculated date, which is often a day earlier than lunar visibility in Saudi. However, they end the month of Shaban and begin Ramadan through moonsighting. This mixed calendar system means that Saudi Arabia will often go out to sight the Ramadan moon a day 'too early' in Shaban when compared to lunar visibility. This can result in Saudi Arabia beginning Ramadan before the moon is even visible in Saudi Arabia.

Further Problems of using a 'mixed' UQ calendar: Shaban in the UK

The UQ Calendar also caused problems for Muslims in the UK earlier this month regarding when to observe 15 Shaban (Nisf Shaban, Shabe Barat, Ruwa). 

In the UK, 15 Shaban had two dates:

• Saturday 20 April (following Umm al Qura Calendar)
• Sunday 21 April (following local moonsighting date)

However, even the Saudi-followers in the UK were divided amongst themselves into two groups this year! Let's call these two groups Saudi Followers 1 and Saudi Followers 2.

Saudi Followers 1 followed the UQ date.

Saudi Followers 2 took issue to the fact Saudi Arabia do not produce sighting reports for Shaban. Saudi Followers 2 consider Shaban a religious month, and believe it a religious obligation to start religious months with a verified moonsighting.

However, as Saudi Arabia do not include Shaban in one of their four 'religious' months, they do not conduct moonsightings for Shaban. Thus, Saudi Followers 2 split from Saudi Followers 1, and followed the local moonsighting date for 15 Shaban instead!

What about local moonsighters in the UK?

For local moonsighters in the UK things are a lot more straightforward. They commenced Shaban according to local lunar visibility, and will also commence Ramadan based on local lunar visibility. Remember, the local Islamic Calendar does not rely on any moonsighting reports from Saudi Arabia, as they consider Saudi too 'distant' a location, and they will only accept 'local' sighting reports.

They will go out to look for the moon on Sunday 5 May, but will not see it (see Map 2, above). On this evening, the moon will not be visible anywhere in the UK, or in neighbouring countries in Western Europe or North Africa. Although Morocco is in Zone 'C' in the map ('Visible to the unaided eye after being found with an optical aid'), the Moroccan government astronomers have confirmed that they have never successfully sighted a crescent in the 'C' zone. 

Thus, local moonsighters will report a negative sighting, complete 30 days for Shaban and begin fasting for Ramadan on Tuesday 7 May.

To summarise: Both Saudi moon followers and local moon followers will complete 30 days for Shaban. However, as they started Shaban on different days, they will also begin Ramadan on different days.

Concluding Remarks

The New Crescent Society believes that the only way to solve multiple dates for Ramadan and Eid in the UK is to stop relying on word from abroad, and setting up our own calendar in the UK based on local lunar visibility. In order to achieve this, we need your help in setting up sighting locations in every location in the country. If you’re interested in setting one up – don’t hesitate to contact us on: info@newcrescentsociety.com

Whatever your position, it is still a great experience going out to sight the moon, especially for Ramadan and Eid. Why don’t you have a go at trying to sight the moon for Eid, which will be easily visible in the UK on 29 Ramadan, or Tuesday 4 June.

Go out with some friends and family, take some iftar, and search for the Eid moon. To learn how to do it, simply watch this one minute video - it's easy!

This is clearly a complex issue, so please feel free to ask any questions, or make comments, in the box below! What do you think is the solution for the UK? Let us know!

We hope you found this a useful read. Please do share it with friends and family.

Ramadan crescent, 1439 / 2018, seen in London